Dear friends,

There has been little activity on jgaa.com over the last few years. There are several reasons for this, and one day I will probably tell you about them.

However, the world is changing again, and I have some thoughts I want to share.

Current trends

The big money in technology is in mobile, advertizing and security. There are also some action in «cloud» (both for services and infrastructure) – but it's growth is unsure after the NSA scandal last year. (US based clouds are increasingly being doubted by governments and corporations in other countries. Techcrunch. computing.co.uk. Forbes).

 

Mobile

In mobile, Android has around 80% market share. The app market is however getting fragmented with different app-stores. Yandex recently launched their own kit to make it a convenient choice for device manufacturers. Microsoft is rumored to plan their own Android app-store. In US and West Europe, Apple's IOS is still popular and profitable – and there is only one app-store for those apps. Windows RT and Windows 8 phone has flopped. Android currently dominates in all the significant markets.

Android will be challenged by Tizen, Sailfish OS and Firefox OS this year. Tizen is backed by Samsung (among others), and could be a real threat to Androids dominance. Firefox OS is currently targeted for cheap devices for emerguing markets. Windows phone is pretty much dead – and Nokia just released three phones for Android. According to readwrirte web, this is a strategic move to position Microsoft for the next billion smart-phone users. Facebook has similar intentions, and are moving fast to position themselves to be the Internet gateway for the next billion internet users from developing countries. This is probably the real reason that Facebook cashed out 16 billions for WhatsApp. It seems to me to to be a rush among big US companies to position themselves to monopolize internet access in the 3. world, the way it is happening in the US itself these days. (This kind of corporate greed makes me sick btw!)

 

Apps vs. HTML5

A few years ago HTML5 was expected to be the technology fueling the mobile revolution. However, as we know today, native apps dominate the market. This is partially because apps are convenient to make, but also because javascript is too slow for small, cheap mobile devices. There is however one area where HTML5 will dominate, and that is on cheap laptops like the Chromebooks. Google will deny browser extensions to Chrome, and the only way to make apps for these devices will be trough HTML5 and related technologies. The Chromebook market is expanding fast. It's also worth noting that forbes predicts a comeback for HTML5 in mobile. That is a reasonable guess, as 8 core mobile processors becomes available for top sets, and the technical specs for normal smart-phones improves fast. HTML5 is also a solution to the problem with incompatible app worlds.

 

Arm in the data-center

One interesting development that has been talked about over the last years, is Arm in the data-center. AMD has announced their first 64 bit Arm CPU for the data-center. This is an area where I believe there will be a lot of hype, investments and cash.

 

Internet of Things

The internet of things has been «the next bing thing» for quite some time. It's an intriguing area for venture capitalists, and some large players like Google and Cisco are already moving forward. However – there are many obstacles. Security and privacy are huge concerns. Google want your home to tell on you, so it can sell more ads. Cisco want to obsolete the current home appliances, so they can sell you new ones. In the mean time, Asus is serving your private files to anyone with a network connection, your baby camera provides live feed to any pervert on the net, while your new «smart» TV spies on you, and your fridge are busy sending spam-mails. In your living-room, Microsoft's Kinect sensor is watching you like Big Brother in the brilliant book 1984. The track record for data-security and privacy so far in «home appliances» is horrible – and even if the consumer has not picked up the message yet – the press has. So there are lots of concern in the articles about «Internet of things» these days.

This does however open up possibilities for companies that can offer good and innovative products with superior security and privacy as part of the package. (Read: no public cloud linkage).